Reality Fracture Down 43.7 Percent, About Typical for Magic at Day 38
Published November 9, 2026
Every Magic set ships as glass that looks fine in the window and already has a hairline crack. Reality Fracture carries the same crack as the rest, and thirty eight days in, it has spread on schedule. The set's 471 priced cards carry a combined $9,301.57; the 73 we track fell 5.8 percent this week, 69 down against one riser. Its index sits at negative 43.7 percent, against a typical earlier Magic set's negative 33.3 percent at this age, good for fourth of six. Price window: 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-09, ungraded market prices.
“Tracked” cards are those with a market price on both ends of the week and worth at least $5 at the start; cheaper cards are left out because a few cents of movement reads as a large, meaningless percentage.
The Model Had Nothing to Say About Card One
Bloodline Recollector tops the set at $3,100, and the model, for once, has nothing to say. The Theorist, Jace Beleren, Magic's own mind reader, is down just 1.2 percent this week, but the model calls it for minus 5.0 percent over the next month and minus 14.7 over the year. Across the chase list, one-month comparable medians run from minus 1.7 to minus 13.1 percent, with most six-month medians lower still. Hexhaven Invigorator had the roughest week of the six, down 11.9 percent, fitting for a card classified as a Horror.
Bloodline Recollector (Retro Frame) (Serial Numbered) (Double Rainbow Foil)
The One Ring (Borderless) (Surge Foil)
Traveling Chocobo (Borderless) (Neon Ink Blue)
Sothera, the Supervoid (Singularity Foil)
The Theorist, Jace Beleren (Showcase) (Fracture Foil)
Mox Amber (Borderless) (Dwarvish)
Cloud, Midgar Mercenary (Borderless) (Surge Foil)
Ancient Tomb (0091) (Borderless) (Galaxy Foil)
Craterclaw Colossus (Borderless) (Facet Foil) (0455)
Galadriel, Light of Valinor (Borderless) (Surge Foil)
Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER (Borderless) (Surge Foil)Ancient Tomb (0091) (Borderless) (Galaxy Foil)
Return to the Light Realms (Borderless) (Facet Foil) (0451)
Orcish Bowmasters (Borderless) (Surge Foil)
Yuna, Grand Summoner (Borderless) (Surge Foil)Ancient Tomb (0091) (Borderless) (Galaxy Foil)
Darklight Phoenix (Borderless) (Facet Foil) (0453)
The One Ring (Borderless)
Mana Confluence (0160) (Borderless) (Galaxy Foil)
Starfield Vocalist (Showcase) (Fracture Foil)
Hexhaven Invigorator (Borderless) (Facet Foil)
Sauron, the Dark Lord (Borderless) (Surge Foil)
Tifa, Martial Artist (Borderless) (Surge Foil)Mana Confluence (0160) (Borderless) (Galaxy Foil)Bloodline Recollector, on its own appraisal: still pending, model included.
One Card Rose, and Omnipresence Wasn't It
Craterclaw Colossus was the set's only riser, up 0.8 percent to $441.44, though the model calls it down 0.1 percent next month anyway. Darklight Phoenix lost 38.8 percent, down to $11.95, with the model calling another 5.0 percent down in a month. Return to the Light Realms (the cheap printing) dropped 53.3 percent to $9.86, right behind it. Omnipresence, an enchantment, fell 67.7 percent to $3.65: rough week for a card named for being everywhere. Overwrite the Multiverse fell 41.4 percent to $4.39, a sorcery that could not overwrite its own chart.
Craterclaw Colossus (Borderless) (Facet Foil) (0455)
Omnipresence (Borderless) (0448)
Return to the Light Realms (Borderless) (0440)
Overwrite the Multiverse (Borderless)
Darklight Phoenix (Borderless) (0444)Omnipresence, down 67.7 percent: apparently not everywhere after all.
Rarity Didn't Protect Anything This Week
Mythic cards carry a median price of $8.78 and fell a median 8.2 percent this week, out of 91 priced and 64 we track. Rares sit at $0.57 and dropped 5.5 percent; the lone tracked Uncommon fell 8.3 percent from a $0.22 median. Tokens, Lands and Commons range from 27 cents down to 12, none of them tracked closely enough to move. On schedule, rarity bought no protection this week, mythic or not.
| Rarity | Priced | Median price | Tracked | Median move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic | 91 | $8.78 | 64 | -8.2% |
| Rare | 134 | $0.57 | 8 | -5.5% |
| Token | 16 | $0.27 | 0 | – |
| Uncommon | 124 | $0.22 | 1 | -8.3% |
| Land | 35 | $0.22 | 0 | – |
| Common | 71 | $0.12 | 0 | – |
Six rarities, six falling lines, one shared mood.
Reality Fracture's Best Day Was Its First
Since release on October 2, Reality Fracture's price index has only had one data point worth bragging about: day zero, when it stood at 0.0 percent, its peak. Every day since has been lower, and the index now sits at negative 44.3 percent, which also happens to be the lowest point it has hit yet. The set has not gone up once since the day it came out. The crack never closed.
Day zero: the high point. Every day after: the rest of the chart.
Three Sets Aged Better, Two Aged Worse
At day 38, Reality Fracture's index is negative 43.7 percent. Commander and Art Series, its own companion products, did worse at this age, down 52.2 and 50.0 percent; the Promo Pack version, The Hobbit and The Hobbit: Eternal-Legal all did better, down 33.3 and 12.6 percent, with Eternal-Legal still up 2.1. That's fourth of six, against a median of negative 33.3 percent. The two Hobbit sets kept falling afterward too, another 17.7 and 13.4 percent over the next month, proof that fourth place is still a place.
| Set | Released | Priced from | At day 38 | Next month | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reality Fracture | 2026-10-02 | day 0 | -43.7% | – | -43.7% (day 38) |
| Commander: Reality Fracture | 2026-10-02 | day 0 | -52.2% | – | -52.7% (day 39) |
| Art Series: Reality Fracture | 2026-10-02 | day 0 | -50.0% | – | -50.1% (day 39) |
| Promo Pack: Reality Fracture | 2026-10-02 | day 0 | -33.3% | – | -33.7% (day 39) |
| The Hobbit | 2026-08-14 | day 1 | -12.6% | -17.7% | -32.5% (day 88) |
| The Hobbit: Eternal-Legal | 2026-08-14 | day 1 | +2.1% | -13.4% | -15.8% (day 88) |
Six sets, six starting lines, one fourth place finish.
Most of the Set Lives Under a Dollar
Of the 471 priced cards in Reality Fracture, 324 sit under a dollar and another 79 top out at five. Only 35 cards run from $5 to $20, 7 more from $20 to $50, and just 3 sit between $50 and $100. The remaining 23 clear the $100 mark, which is where the chase list actually lives. Four hundred and three cards, or well over four out of five, never get past five dollars, which is good news if you were hoping to collect the set without much damage to your wallet.
471 cards, mostly priced like pocket change.
The Model's Top Climbers All Climb by Zero
The model's 67 one-month calls for this set break down to 52 flat, 15 down, zero up, with its top five projected climbers each forecast to gain exactly 0.0 percent. Its median call here, minus 0.7 percent, is far milder than the minus 15.6 percent the two comparable earlier sets posted over the same 30 days. Across 1,221,643 checked calls on this game, the model misses by 9.6 percent on average, while guessing flat alone misses by only 8.9. It gets the direction right 54.1 percent of the time, a hair above a coin flip.
| Card | Now | 1M forecast | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasoned Cryomancer (Borderless) (Facet Foil) (0452) | $247.37 | $247.38 | +0.0% |
| Liliana the Faultless (Borderless) | $5.42 | $5.42 | +0.0% |
| Geist of Saint Thalia (Borderless) | $6.36 | $6.36 | +0.0% |
| Seasoned Cryomancer | $6.74 | $6.74 | +0.0% |
| Chandra, Chill of Compliance | $6.77 | $6.77 | +0.0% |
| Checked | Typical miss | Flat baseline | 80% band | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,221,643 | 9.6% | 8.9% | 82% | 54% |
| Window | Model, median call | Earlier sets from day 38, median |
|---|---|---|
| One month | -0.7% (67 cards) | -15.6% (2 sets, -17.7% to -13.4%) |
Forecasts are model estimates, not financial advice. Every card in Reality Fracture with its price, or browse the set in the catalog; the About page explains how the forecasts are made.
Reality Fracture is still doing what every Magic set does after launch: finding out how big the crack really is. On schedule, as always, is just another word for down.